Florida's health department opened and then closed an investigation into the state's polarizing surgeon general, Joseph Ladapo, after a tipster claiming to have insider knowledge alleged that Ladapo "manipulated data" and committed "scientific fraud" in his final edits to what became a contentious, widely panned analysis on COVID-19 vaccine safety in young men.

That's all according to a report by Politico, which reviewed state documents on the investigation, including the original complaint from the tipster. Those documents appear to raise more questions than answers regarding the accusations and the health department's investigation. According to the documents, the Florida Department of Health’s inspector general opened an investigation in November of last year but closed it at an undisclosed time because the anonymous complainant didn't respond to follow-up questions.

“Batshit study”

The dubious analysis at the center of the controversy was posted online last October by the health department. Oddly, though, it did not list any authors or bear the health department's letterhead or other identifiers. Ladapo used the analysis as the basis for the state's concerning recommendation that males aged 18 to 39 should not receive an mRNA-based COVID-19 vaccine. That recommendation goes against the recommendations of all other major health organizations, including the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

As Ars previously reported, the analysis was roundly criticized by outside epidemiologists and other health experts, who described it as "utter rubbish," "extremely misleading," "comically bad," "seriously flawed," and "the absolute most batshit study design and analysis plan I have ever seen." Others noted that the conclusion "smells of p-hacking" and data cherry-picking.

In a particularly stinging assessment, Ladapo's former mentor at Harvard University, health economist David Cutler, bluntly told The Washington Post last year, "If I was a reviewer at a journal, I would recommend rejecting it." Cutler echoed other experts in calling the analysis deeply flawed, and he worried it would wrongly discourage people from getting vaccinated against COVID-19. "Anytime you tell people to do something incorrect, you risk causing harm," Cutler said.

The anonymous complaint to the Florida health department's inspector general suggests that some staff at the department may have been equally alarmed by the analysis—which could explain why it doesn't bear any of their names.

“Lots of people know”

While Ladapo touted that the analysis found a link between mRNA-based COVID-19 vaccines and an increased risk of cardiac-related deaths in young men, “The analysis performed in DOH did not find this,” the tipster alleged in the complaint to the inspector general. Rather, Ladapo "manipulated the final draft of the analysis."

Politico reported that nothing appears to be known of the tipster's identity or position, but the complaint suggests that the person might have inside knowledge of the health department. The tipster implored the inspector general to speak with employees at the state Department of Health Communicable Disease Division, who helped write earlier drafts of the analysis. The person also cautioned that emails related to the analysis were kept to a minimum and that most communication involved hand-delivered notes.

"You may not find these documents by email, as they get transmitted by hand," the tipster reportedly wrote. "But they have been seen by several individuals." The person stated that "Lots of people know about this."

The Florida Department of Health did not immediately respond to Ars' request for comment and information.

In an interview with Politico, Ladapo called the allegations "factually false."

"I trust the team," he added, "they used our Florida data, they performed the analysis, and we’re an accredited public health organization."