It has been 18 months since the European Union announced its intent to develop an independent satellite Internet constellation, and the plans appear to be heading into troubled waters.

In that time, a single bid—from a consortium of multinational companies that includes Airbus Defence and Space, Thales Alenia Space, and Arianespace—has emerged to build the network of a few hundred satellites. The companies are to build, launch, and deploy the network of satellites, intended as Europe's answer to SpaceX's Starlink satellite Internet service for connectivity and secure communications, by 2027.

However, the European Commission recently delayed the awarding of a contract to this consortium from March to an undetermined date. In April, Europe's Commissioner for Internal Market, Thierry Breton, said, “There is an independent committee which is working on the evaluation process. The work is being carried out extremely seriously." He did not say when this work would conclude.

Don’t be hasty

A new report in a German publication, Handelsblatt, provides information on some likely causes of the delay. The report indicates that the cost estimate for the Interconnectivity and Security by Satellite (IRIS²) constellation has doubled from an initial estimate of 6 billion euros to 12 billion. Additionally, the project is exposing long-running fault lines between Germany and France when it comes to European space policy.

The report cites a letter written by Germany's Federal Minister for Economic Affairs and Climate Action, Robert Habeck, to Thierry Breton in March. In his letter, Habeck urged Breton not to make "hasty decisions" about the project and said planning should be reset.

Habeck did not question the need for a sovereign communications network. The war in Ukraine has left a deep impression on Europeans, and they have seen the value of secure satellite Internet. The difficulty is in how to get there. The continent does not have a reusable rocket like SpaceX's Falcon 9, nor the capacity to rapidly build hundreds of complex satellites.

The European Commission and European Space Agency are jointly investing in the project to develop these capabilities. However, the IRIS² constellation is intended to be a public-private partnership, with the space companies also investing in the project and subsequently profiting from selling communication services.

The problem is that the major players involved, such as Airbus and Arianespace, are not accustomed to operating in space projects in this way. Typically, they are given government contracts to provide services rather than investing significant amounts of their own capital.

The letter from Habeck is a signal that Germany, which alongside France is likely to be the main financial backer of IRIS², is not happy that most of the prime contractors are based in France or linked to the nation. In addition, Breton is French. And finally, it appears the operations for the constellation will be based primarily in Italy.

It probably won’t be hasty

Competition between France and Germany in spaceflight, despite both nations being prominent members of the European Union, has been long-running. One example is the Ariane 6 rocket, the continent's new launch vehicle. Its design grew out of a compromise that saw France responsible for the rocket's first stage and Germany primarily responsible for the upper stage.

In recent years, both nations have sought to foster an environment in which new space companies can develop and flourish. Another source of tension in the development of the IRIS² constellation is that up to one-third of the contract value was supposed to go to smaller space companies rather than the prime contractors. However, this looks increasingly unlikely to happen.

It should really come as no surprise that Europe is seeing delays with the IRIS² constellation and probable cost overruns. Internet constellations are hard, and Europe has several hurdles to overcome. There is the Ariane 6 rocket, which is four years late and already has a busy manifest and technical difficulty in building such satellites. And there is the challenge of coordinating such a complex endeavor across many different constituencies.

All of this will likely eventually get sorted out, and European companies are certainly capable of building excellent satellites. But a sovereign European satellite Internet constellation is probably not coming before the end of this decade, nor at a low price.