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{"id":6620,"date":"2022-05-25T15:43:01","date_gmt":"2022-05-25T15:43:01","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/scienceandnerds.com\/2022\/05\/25\/the-800-pound-gorilla-in-the-gulf-of-mexico-that-could-supercharge-hurricanes-this-season\/"},"modified":"2022-05-25T15:43:01","modified_gmt":"2022-05-25T15:43:01","slug":"the-800-pound-gorilla-in-the-gulf-of-mexico-that-could-supercharge-hurricanes-this-season","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/scienceandnerds.com\/2022\/05\/25\/the-800-pound-gorilla-in-the-gulf-of-mexico-that-could-supercharge-hurricanes-this-season\/","title":{"rendered":"The \u2018800 pound gorilla\u2019 in the Gulf of Mexico that could supercharge hurricanes this season"},"content":{"rendered":"

Source: https:\/\/www.theverge.com\/2022\/5\/24\/23139430\/loop-current-gulf-of-mexico-hurricane-season-forecast<\/a>
\n
<\/br><\/code><\/p>\n

\n

Forecasters expect a busy 2022 Atlantic hurricane season, with a 65 percent chance of an above-average season. There\u2019s also a wildcard in the mix that raises the risk of more severe storms in the Gulf of Mexico this year. <\/p>\n

Between 14 to 21 tropical storms could grow powerful enough to be named this season, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) said in its season outlook briefing<\/a>, which was released today. The average Atlantic hurricane season, which starts on June 1st, typically has about 14 named storms. Another prominent forecast<\/a> from Colorado State University predicted 19 named storms this year.<\/p>\n

NOAA expects six to 10 storms <\/strong>to strengthen into hurricanes. NOAA also forecast between three to six major hurricanes, ranked as a Category 3 or higher<\/a> with wind speeds of at least 111 miles per hour. <\/p>\n

There\u2019s also a troubling development in the Gulf of Mexico. The Loop Current<\/a>, a current of warm water, has moved surprisingly far north for this time of year<\/a>. The current, which flows like a river within the sea, brings warmer water from the Caribbean to typically cooler waters closer to the US Gulf Coast. That\u2019s especially worrying news for the season <\/strong>since hurricanes feed off heat energy. <\/p>\n

\u201cIt\u2019s higher octane fuel,\u201d says University of Miami oceanography professor Nick Shay. \u201cIt\u2019s the 800 pound gorilla in the Gulf.\u201d<\/p>\n

Shay is concerned that the Loop Current\u2019s current behavior looks similar to the 2005 Atlantic Hurricane season \u2014 when hurricanes Katrina, Rita, and Wilma ripped through Gulf Coast communities. <\/p>\n

\u201cIn 2005, we have what is known as the hurricane Trifecta in the Gulf of Mexico,\u201d Shay says. Both Katrina and Rita developed explosively into Category 5 storms after crossing paths with the Loop Current\u2019s warmer waters. Hurricanes Ida in 2021 and Harvey in 2017 were also strengthened by the Loop Current<\/a>.<\/p>\n

The Loop Current\u2019s water is also saltier. Differences in temperature and salinity between the Loop Current and the rest of the Gulf limit ocean water mixing, which might normally bring surface temperatures down. <\/p>\n

As a result, the current holds onto heat at much deeper depths than the surrounding Gulf. Water temperatures of 78 degrees Fahrenheit in the current can reach up to 500 feet below the surface. Outside of the current, those kinds of temperatures usually only reach 100 feet below the surface. \u201cIt\u2019s a big difference,\u201d Shay says. <\/p>\n

But Shay cautions that it\u2019s too soon to tell whether something similar to 2005 could happen this season. It will depend on whether any storms move toward the Loop Current (or toward large circling pools of hot water that spin off from the current, called eddies). Whether the Loop Current can successfully supercharge storms will also depend on whether storms form during <\/strong>favorable atmospheric conditions and low wind shear.<\/p>\n

Strong wind sheer, changes in the wind\u2019s speed and direction, can destabilize or weaken<\/a> a storm. But a weather pattern called La Ni\u00f1a is expected to keep wind shear low throughout the hurricane season, a factor that could up the chances of stronger storms developing.<\/p>\n

NOAA also pointed to an \u201cenhanced\u201d west African monsoon affecting this year\u2019s Atlantic season. The west African monsoon, a major wind system, can drive stronger easterly waves that \u201cseed many of the strongest and longest lived hurricanes during most seasons,\u201d NOAA says in its season outlook<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Stronger hurricanes are expected to become more common<\/a> as climate change heats up the world\u2019s oceans. Warmer than average sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic Ocean and Caribbean Sea are also likely to boost hurricane activity this season, NOAA said today.<\/p>\n

There\u2019s also evidence that hurricanes have begun to intensify more quickly<\/a> and keep their strength<\/a> for longer after making landfall as global average temperatures rise. The Loop Current\u2019s warm eddies also seem to hold more heat than they have in the past, Shay says, although scientists can\u2019t yet pinpoint why.<\/p>\n

Should NOAA\u2019s predictions for 2022 come true, it would be the seventh consecutive above-normal season for the Atlantic.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n


<\/br><\/code><\/p>\n

Source: https:\/\/www.theverge.com\/2022\/5\/24\/23139430\/loop-current-gulf-of-mexico-hurricane-season-forecast<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Source: Forecasters expect a busy 2022 Atlantic hurricane season, with a 65 percent chance of an above-average season. There\u2019s also a wildcard in the mix that raises the risk of more severe storms in the Gulf of Mexico this year. Between 14 to 21 tropical storms could grow powerful enough to be named this season, […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"nf_dc_page":"","om_disable_all_campaigns":false,"pagelayer_contact_templates":[],"_pagelayer_content":"","_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[44,40,26],"tags":[45],"class_list":["post-6620","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-climate-change","category-environment","category-science","tag-climate-change"],"yoast_head":"\nThe \u2018800 pound gorilla\u2019 in the Gulf of Mexico that could supercharge hurricanes this season - Science and Nerds<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/scienceandnerds.com\/2022\/05\/25\/the-800-pound-gorilla-in-the-gulf-of-mexico-that-could-supercharge-hurricanes-this-season\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"The \u2018800 pound gorilla\u2019 in the Gulf of Mexico that could supercharge hurricanes this season - Science and Nerds\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Source: Forecasters expect a busy 2022 Atlantic hurricane season, with a 65 percent chance of an above-average season. 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